通过公式推导，明确国内外所规定的两类塑性变形预测方法的物理意义。对比标准椭圆形封头冷冲压成形试验结果，建立能够真实反映封头冷冲压成形过程的数值计算方法。基于该数值计算方法，研究封头塑性变形与公称直径Dn、名义厚度δn的关联性，建立基于这两个参数的封头塑性变形预测方法，并对比所建立的预测方法与现有方法得到的封头塑性变形结果的差异。得到如下结论：现有的两种预测方法得到的结果分别反映了封头经向的平均塑性变形和板料边缘环向压缩塑性变形平均值，两者都不能反映封头真实的塑性变形大小；建立的塑性变形预测方法更加准确、可靠，可用于预测封头的塑性变形。

It is the main purpose to acquire the method of predicting the plastic deformation of cold stamping standard elliptical heads. As the formulas are derived, the physical meaning of the two plastic deformation prediction methods, one is used in home and the other one is used in abroad, is realized. A finite element model of the head cold stamping process is developed and validated by comparing the simulation and the experimental results. Thus, heads with different nominal diameter Dn and nominal thickness δn have been simulated and a plastic deformation prediction method of heads is proposed. The calculation results of two prediction methods are compared with those calculated by the new prediction method. The results of the two existing prediction methods reflect the average plastic deformation of heads in warp and loop direction respectively, but not the real one. However, the new prediction method is built, which can be used effectively to predict the plastic deformation of heads, is more accurate and reliable.