用有限元法在精确计算机械板凸度并在验证其计算结果有效性基础上，通过解析板形刚度理论，解析凸度遗传方程中的遗传系数，建立计算带钢的板凸度方程。利用现场实际生产工艺参数依次计算各架轧机出口带钢凸度并和末机架后凸度仪测量的板凸度值比较，预测热连轧机辊系综合凸度在一个轧制单元内的变化规律。预测结果通过对现场各机架大量的工作辊辊型测量数据经计算后得到验证，在一定工况条件下，预测的辊系综合凸度整体变化趋势和实际辊系凸度变化保持一致。这种预测方法避免了热连轧过程中为精确控制板凸度而计算各单个机架轧辊实时热、磨凸度变化所带来的复杂性，完成了一个轧制单元内实时辊系综合凸度预测值在各单个机架轧机上的凸度分配及应用。应用效果表明，现场带钢板凸度目标值在 ±10 μm 内的命中率由91%提高到97%，产品实物质量得到明显改善。所建模型与预测结果对板形理论研究和现场操作实践具有实际参考价值。

Using FEM,based on accurate calculation of mechanical strip crown and calculated results validation,genetic coefficient of the crown genetic equation is analyzed through analytical theory of plate shape stiffness and the strip crown equation is established. Then, the change rule of hot rolling mill real-time rolls integrated crown is predicted within a rolling unit through using the actual production process parameters in turn to calculate the strip crown of each stand mill and comparing strip crown between crown instrument measured data and calculated value. Prediction results are verified after calculation by a large number of work roll profile measured data in the field,and the overall variation trend of rolls integrated crown is consistent with the actual rolls crown under a certain condition. The prediction value of the real-time rolls integrated crown is distributed and applied to each stand mill to avoid complex computer of real-time hot crown and wear crown of single stand mill in hot strip rolling for precise control strip crown. Application results show that the hit rate of the strip crown target value within ±10 μm is improved from 92% to 97% and product quality has been significantly improved. The building model and predicted results offer actual reference value for strip shape theoretical investigation and operation practice in rolling site.